No more options left on the table for the Euro Zone. We can only await the inevitable End Game.

Updating this blog on a weekly basis is really getting tough especially when there is really no stock to recommend and every week it seems like the big issue lies in Europe. Lets hope this crisis does not last as long as I believe it will or else we will have to close off this blog cos there will be nothing much to write about.

Over the past week I have really wondered whether the weather is the best predictor of the markets these days. It rains on a daily basis and the markets seem to be taking its cue from the gods. The S&P500 registered close to a 5% drop over the past week, European markets seem to be on the next "down" wave. Asian markets are also falling extremely quickly and it will not be surprising if we revisit the Oct 4 lows soon. Should it be breached, we would have practically reached a nice double top formation or for some markets a nice head and shoulders pattern which spells plenty of trouble.

This week, I would like to throw in a belief of mine which I formed over the past couple of weeks. That is, I believe it is too late....Really too late. Have you guys ever had any experience with a situation where it reaches a point of no return. The problem is that the situation was still manageable if you had taken the bitter pill and nipped things in the bud but due to your indecisiveness and unwillingness to take short term pain, it evolved into a situation which cannot be contained and an eventual write off occurred. I am afraid that is where Europe is right now. In one of my posts a couple of months ago, I offered a few possible solutions that I thought was possible to bring the markets back to life and resolve this European Sovereign debt crisis but it is my conjecture now that the time for those solutions have passed and the end game is inevitable.

An analogy I would use would be the case of a couple whose marriage is not doing so well. It all started with a minor disagreement on whether to have kids or not. Both parties cannot agree but they believe a solution will be arrived upon over time because they are still young. Neither are the sort that like confrontations and would prefer for one of the parties to change their minds over time. So as time passes with no proper preparation or discussion, both parties continue to drag on with the problem till the point where age is catching up and time is running out. Desperate times call for desperate measures, however due to both parties not focusing much on the problem and taking for granted one party will compromise, they both have drifted apart and the marriage is no longer reconcilable. You get the drift? If you had diabetes and have an open wound that does not heal, it would be better to amputate, either that or lose even more by dragging it on. That is exactly what is happening in Europe now.

I believe even if Germany agrees with Eurobond issuance now, it will not be enough anymore. Why? Because confidence has dwindled to the extent of investors not willing to take up German Bunds offered during auctions. Italian 3 year yields crossed 8%. Belgium bond yields rising more than 1% in a week. All the Eurozone core countries are starting to look shaky. All eyes are on the rating agencies as they threaten further downgrades across Europe. Considering there were a few headlines that even described the Eurozone as "Europe's junkyard". By the time this crisis unfolds completely, we will have plenty of junk rated bond issuers. So even if they decide to leverage even more or have a joint Eurobond issuance, it will not be of any use because only god knows how much will the borrowing cost will be. Options have run out and it is time the Eurozone leaders wake up to the reality that the Eurozone will either have to break up or to consolidate and keep only the core healthy countries. Even Merkel has admitted that if Italy defaults, it will be the end of the Eurozone.

Currency markets in my view have been a great barometer of how the equity markets are going to perform. The Euro and AUD has shown lots of weakness this couple of weeks and it is very obvious that risk taking is off the table. The Euro is at year low and the stock markets are probably going to follow in its footsteps. The cost for European banks to fund in USD rose to levels not seen since Oct 2008, that is a sign that the interbank market has frozen up. Guess what? Oct 2008 was right after Lehman collapsed on 15th Sept 2008. That gives us a good idea of how much tension there is in the markets today.

There was even an article in the Italian press that the IMF is preparing a 600 billion Eur loan for Italy. That alone is more than all the money loaned to Asia during the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Are we facing another "Lehman moment" in Italy's case? I certainly think so.

November has been a bad month for most asset classes and that includes gold which many investors believed that it would be a safe haven but they seem to have forgotten that there is a lot of speculative money in this asset class which means that it will be part of the deleveraging process of market participants. Selling out of their profitable positions to pay for their loss making ones. Do expect more weakness in all risky assets over the next few months.

Remember my comments about the recent IPOs? Well they have gotten back to more reasonable prices. I really do hope not too many people got caught with those junk issues. Even the blockbuster IPOs for this year like Hutchinson Port Holdings are dead in the water. Looks like Li Ka Shing has pulled another fast one on investors. Selling out at the right time at the right price. He truly lives up to his reputation of a great investor. We are seeing lots of weakness across the Singapore market but be patient, it is not time to buy yet. Time your entries according to the market levels. Do not be deceived by the individual stock prices and focus more on the index levels to get your entry levels right. At this moment, I expect the STI to test its year lows before attempting a lame rebound. So trade wisely. Nothing much more to say on the markets, just that it is time to be fearful because people are still not fearful enough.

Best,

SVI