Election, election and election. Every time I turned the corner this week, I was asked my views on the upcoming election. One of my friends even told me that I should put more thought into this election because the future of Singapore depended on our collective vote. So what did I do? I went onto Youtube to watch videos of the various opposition candidates on show. Never have I ever expected Singaporeans to be so passionate about the general elections. To make it even more exaggerating, I had a friend who smsed me at 8 am in the morning to ask if I was going to the Workers Party Rally at Serangoon Stadium. I would totally understand if he was living in the area of Aljunied and going to be voting for Low Thia Kiang but guess what? He lives all the way in Sembawang! And me? I live in the area but I cannot even be bothered to walk 1 km to listen to it.
Have you all looked at the candidates? Nicole Seah? Chen Show Mao? Impressive? I have to agree for a 24 year old, Nicole seems like a a sensible girl with a good head. But my question to anyone who is reading this...How much did you know when you were 24? Enough to contemplate policies? In life, there is something which brains cannot replace...that is experience. So all I can say is, vote wisely. As for Chen Show Mao, I cannot deny he seems to be a very intelligent man, but I get the feeling that there is more that meets the eye. Make sure you go onto Youtube to look at his speeches in mandarin. He is a totally different person when he starts speaking in his mother tongue. His true facial expressions are revealed and that did not give me a good feeling about him.
When it comes to listening to candidates rally speeches, I never pay attention to what they say that much. The reason is, I feel every candidate will make promises and give you their passionate views, but the best way to view them is to pay attention to their facial expressions to see if they really mean what they say and whether there are any other hidden intentions. I am sure all of us have been in a courtship before. When someone is courting you, they will promise you the world. But talk is cheap. When you get into the relationship, you realised that those were just words and empty promises and you have just accepted a jerk or a bi%*h into your life. By then, its too late.
Anyway this is meant to be an investment blog so I am not going to get into too much political talk in here.
So what should I write about this week? The USD is still weak? $1.227 to the SGD. Gold has moved to another all time high. Silver is broken its all time high. The last time silver was this high, the Hunt brothers had cornered it and it was artificially pushed to this price in 1980. Some "experts" are calling for $100 dollar silver and $2100 gold. I am not saying that I disagree but that would mean the USD has dropped to a point where the markets are inflated to a point which makes the tech bubble look like a bargain to Warren Buffett.
My little titbit on the Malaysian market this week is on an IPO called Focus Lumber. It IPOed at $0.60 and closed at $1.20 on the first day of trade. I rest my case. I just want to emphasis how great the Malaysian market is for investors and traders that is why I keep throwing in the little movements.
I remember my call on Fragrance some time ago and since then the stock has just gone from strength to strength. Another bonus issue again! Look back at the company's track record, it has given back so much to the shareholders and if you were a shareholder since the beginning, you will be laughing your way to the bank. In my post on Fragrance, I have already given you all the reasons to buy the stock. Fragrance should be used as a template for all of us on deciding which stocks to buy and put into our portfolios. It is also important to note that Fragrance did not start performing immediately. Value takes time to show its true form. Like what Warren Buffett said, "in the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term it is a weighing machine." Value always shines through.
The Singapore market was a little weaker this week because people did not like the fact that 94% of the seats will be contested at this coming general elections. In the short term, it will not be too good for the STI, but in the medium term, people will not remember how many popular votes our PAP lost or won. So just take the pull back as a buying opportunity.
Earnings have been quite good so far in Singapore. The large caps all did well and the small caps have reported impressive earnings too. No negative surprises so far and I am looking through the books of some of the companies which I like to see if things have changed. So far I have not found any reasons to sell any of my calls. So lets see how it goes. Will keep you guys informed when if I should find any of my calls turning for the worse.
In the US, earnings have been not too bad with the usual suspects like Microsoft and Research In Motion underperforming. Overall it has been a decent earnings season over there but that does not really justify the gravity defying US markets. The Dow and S&P 500 has risen more than 10% this year. Interesting thing is, if you were a Singaporean investor and bought into the US market, your returns will only be 5% after taking into currency losses. It may seem like a good market environment this year, but even the STI is down by 0.5% for the year. All in all, it has not been an easy market to make money in. Take it from an investment professional (me), it has been tough to manage portfolios in such an environment. Where you have to juggle large fluctuations in currencies while trying to find good companies to buy.
Nothing much more to talk about unless you want me to start writing about what I think about the Royal Farce oops Wedding I mean.
Till the next week. Have a good trading week ahead.
Best,
SVI
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