The market today is like a pitch dark room. Do you dare to move forward?

First and foremost, I would like to state that I am writing this post while I am half drunk in a foreign country and my readers may not understand how this will link to investing principles. I just felt that I should write this post down as a way to remind myself about what I have learnt today and to never forget the important lesson which I attended today.

Today, I attended a session called "dialogue in the dark" in the wonderful and interesting country called Hong Kong. I have to admit that I was really skeptical about the whole activity because I thought to myself, what the hell can one learn about going into a pitch dark room and doing team activities in the dark. But I feel compelled to share the lesson which I learnt during the session with all of you. We spent the better part of 3 hours in a pitch dark room led by a guide who tried to lead us through the journey of sensory awakening. It was an interesting experience to go through darkness to try to enhance your senses and try to do group activities at the same time.

Why am I sharing it with all of you? Its because I feel its exactly what we are going through in this month's market. Fact of the matter is, none of us know for sure why the market is falling at this rate and why the sudden upshot of volatility. The volatility index on the CBOE is the VIX and it has not been this high since March 2009. Imagine yourself walking in a big open space with nothing but a blind man's walking stick in a place so dark that you cannot see your hand in front of you. It is exactly the same situation as you are in now with regards the market.

It is true! No matter how smart you are, it means nothing because there is no damn way you will know how the market is going to go. Not even the smartest people in the world can be sure. On last Thurday, the Dow Jones fell by 370 odd points, but do you know what was the real reason? Was there anything that happened that could have caused such a steep fall? Hell no! That is why I am likening what is happening now to what I experienced today in the dark room. You do not know what is going to happen to the market over the next few months. It could rebound quickly, or it could continue falling.

If you were the only one in the dark room, there are lots of reasons to why you should fear. Some people would freeze on the spot and not move, they will end up being safe but will never get anywhere because they are not moving, the thing is, they will never be out of the dark being cowardly. Or they could use the stick and try to feel for the way forward and be brave about it. The best way to describe the situation today is to acknowledge that no one in the world knows what is the main reason. Thus its the same as having the whole world being stuck in a place that is pitch dark and not knowing where they are and what awaits in front of them.

If you do not continue to walk forward, there is a chance that you would miss a big chance and end up with nothing, if you do walk forward, two things may happen. You may get fall, hit something but eventually you will find a way into the light. What I am trying to convey here is, fortune favors the brave.

Oh on a final closing note, did I mention that the guides that led us through the pitch dark room are blind? Amazing? It was. Why did I point that out? Because the analysts of this world are the blind guides. So they are no better than you but they dare to put their feet forward and try moving. Some of them may be right, some may be wrong. But their guess is as good as yours, so why don't you do your own work and make decisions on your own. I am doing just that. Are you?

Best,

SVI