Holiday time! Just a note before CNY!

What shall we talk about today? It has been almost one week since my last post, once again thanks to my thankless job, I did not have enough time to write much. However, as Chinese New Year draws close, I do feel obligated to post something just as a commemorative note to close off the year of the Ox. Heh heh. Call me a sentimental softie. hahaha.

My past few posts were mainly reflective of my views on the economy and market, less on stock specific issues. It is not because I have not been able to find value, in fact, this correction has thrown up some rather interesting stocks for me to look at. As earnings season kicks into overdrive, do expect me to come out with more stock ideas. Some people will say that I am fickle and do not stick to the same stocks, but I just want to clarify that I am not an analyst and I do not need to do updates on stocks unless I feel there is an extremely important statement to be made about a certain stock. My stock calls are all for the long term and they are what I consider value investments. My purpose for making those calls is to point my readers to the right direction and not to feed them for the rest of their lives. But I would like to open the floor up to all my readers to request for me to review any stock that comes to their mind.

Now refering back to my last post, I did mention that this week would be an interesting one and it has turned out to be. Right as I am writing this post, the European Union is deliberating whether to bail out good ole Greece. Bernanke went ahead and announced his grand plan of exiting the loose monetary policies (quite a lame one if I should say so myself). Jobless claims came in at the lowest level in months at 444k for the week, last week's jobs report showed 9.7% unemployment (come on, who are you trying to kid?) with a negative jobs number (-20k jobs)...Talk about manipulation of data. In my job, I get to read many investment strategists' outlooks and some of them believe that by some other measure, unemployment in the US is currently at 17% or more. So trust me when I say, the Federal Reserve will not be able to execute its exit strategy any time soon. Raising the discount rate will not be an issue for the markets as it just means that the banks will not be able to borrow from the discount window at such a low rate. Its not really that big a deal so do not expect the US dollar to rally significantly in the short term.

For those that remember the Asian Financial Crisis, they will tell you that initially when Asia went into crisis mode, global stocks got hit including that of the Eurozone and US. After the initial crash, developed economies stabilised and their markets showed much more resilience while Asia continued to languish.

Now its our turn to enjoy the show as developed economies struggle with their internal issues, Euro zone with Greece, Spain and Portugal while the US struggles with their municipal states facing bankruptcy i.e. California (poor arnold...the terminator may not be BACK). Asia amongst the rest of the emerging economies look like they are sitting pretty as economic growth seem to have stabilised and getting back on the track we were on in 2007.I fully expect "hot money" from carry trades to flow into Asia as fundamentals continue to improve and Asians get more affluent. It is not going to be a smooth ride, but one thing is for sure, we are right at the centre of all the action. So if you do not invest aggressively in this market, you will probably regret it going forward.

You have to be in it for the long haul. Some people tell me that they are not free to monitor the stock prices, that is why they do not buy stocks. What do I think of that explanation? BULL. One should not be monitoring the price of a stock after he/she buys it. They should only be monitoring the corporate moves and earnings reports. Who the hell cares whether the price of the stock is rising or not. It is the earnings growth that is key. If the earnings grow consistently with a strong balance sheet and positive cashflow, you will be rewarded eventually. Beautiful things cannot be kept under wraps for long without people discovering it. Take it from me, when I buy a stock for its value, I take it off my watchlist and stop monitoring it every day. My closest friends know that it is pointless to ask me about the stock prices of my favourite picks, I DO NOT KNOW. Can you do the same? Ask yourself that question as you are counting down to the holidays.

Happy CNY to all.

I will be giving all a preview into my latest pick soon. Just be patient. Warning...it is not a Singapore counter.

Best,

SVI