Updating this blog on a weekly basis is really getting tough especially when there is really no stock to recommend and every week it seems like the big issue lies in Europe. Lets hope this crisis does not last as long as I believe it will or else we will have to close off this blog cos there will be nothing much to write about.
Over the past week I have really wondered whether the weather is the best predictor of the markets these days. It rains on a daily basis and the markets seem to be taking its cue from the gods. The S&P500 registered close to a 5% drop over the past week, European markets seem to be on the next "down" wave. Asian markets are also falling extremely quickly and it will not be surprising if we revisit the Oct 4 lows soon. Should it be breached, we would have practically reached a nice double top formation or for some markets a nice head and shoulders pattern which spells plenty of trouble.
This week, I would like to throw in a belief of mine which I formed over the past couple of weeks. That is, I believe it is too late....Really too late. Have you guys ever had any experience with a situation where it reaches a point of no return. The problem is that the situation was still manageable if you had taken the bitter pill and nipped things in the bud but due to your indecisiveness and unwillingness to take short term pain, it evolved into a situation which cannot be contained and an eventual write off occurred. I am afraid that is where Europe is right now. In one of my posts a couple of months ago, I offered a few possible solutions that I thought was possible to bring the markets back to life and resolve this European Sovereign debt crisis but it is my conjecture now that the time for those solutions have passed and the end game is inevitable.
An analogy I would use would be the case of a couple whose marriage is not doing so well. It all started with a minor disagreement on whether to have kids or not. Both parties cannot agree but they believe a solution will be arrived upon over time because they are still young. Neither are the sort that like confrontations and would prefer for one of the parties to change their minds over time. So as time passes with no proper preparation or discussion, both parties continue to drag on with the problem till the point where age is catching up and time is running out. Desperate times call for desperate measures, however due to both parties not focusing much on the problem and taking for granted one party will compromise, they both have drifted apart and the marriage is no longer reconcilable. You get the drift? If you had diabetes and have an open wound that does not heal, it would be better to amputate, either that or lose even more by dragging it on. That is exactly what is happening in Europe now.
I believe even if Germany agrees with Eurobond issuance now, it will not be enough anymore. Why? Because confidence has dwindled to the extent of investors not willing to take up German Bunds offered during auctions. Italian 3 year yields crossed 8%. Belgium bond yields rising more than 1% in a week. All the Eurozone core countries are starting to look shaky. All eyes are on the rating agencies as they threaten further downgrades across Europe. Considering there were a few headlines that even described the Eurozone as "Europe's junkyard". By the time this crisis unfolds completely, we will have plenty of junk rated bond issuers. So even if they decide to leverage even more or have a joint Eurobond issuance, it will not be of any use because only god knows how much will the borrowing cost will be. Options have run out and it is time the Eurozone leaders wake up to the reality that the Eurozone will either have to break up or to consolidate and keep only the core healthy countries. Even Merkel has admitted that if Italy defaults, it will be the end of the Eurozone.
Currency markets in my view have been a great barometer of how the equity markets are going to perform. The Euro and AUD has shown lots of weakness this couple of weeks and it is very obvious that risk taking is off the table. The Euro is at year low and the stock markets are probably going to follow in its footsteps. The cost for European banks to fund in USD rose to levels not seen since Oct 2008, that is a sign that the interbank market has frozen up. Guess what? Oct 2008 was right after Lehman collapsed on 15th Sept 2008. That gives us a good idea of how much tension there is in the markets today.
There was even an article in the Italian press that the IMF is preparing a 600 billion Eur loan for Italy. That alone is more than all the money loaned to Asia during the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Are we facing another "Lehman moment" in Italy's case? I certainly think so.
November has been a bad month for most asset classes and that includes gold which many investors believed that it would be a safe haven but they seem to have forgotten that there is a lot of speculative money in this asset class which means that it will be part of the deleveraging process of market participants. Selling out of their profitable positions to pay for their loss making ones. Do expect more weakness in all risky assets over the next few months.
Remember my comments about the recent IPOs? Well they have gotten back to more reasonable prices. I really do hope not too many people got caught with those junk issues. Even the blockbuster IPOs for this year like Hutchinson Port Holdings are dead in the water. Looks like Li Ka Shing has pulled another fast one on investors. Selling out at the right time at the right price. He truly lives up to his reputation of a great investor. We are seeing lots of weakness across the Singapore market but be patient, it is not time to buy yet. Time your entries according to the market levels. Do not be deceived by the individual stock prices and focus more on the index levels to get your entry levels right. At this moment, I expect the STI to test its year lows before attempting a lame rebound. So trade wisely. Nothing much more to say on the markets, just that it is time to be fearful because people are still not fearful enough.
Best,
SVI
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Contagion in Europe looks more likely. At least that is what the bond markets are telling us.
Took a nice break last week, away from work and markets. Was too lazy to blog but that does not mean that there was nothing to talk about. In fact, there was so much happening that the market had a tough time digesting all the information. The past two weeks have not been great for the markets and things look like it is only going to get worse before getting better. Lets try to dissect one issue at a time.
Two weeks ago, we witnessed something which we have not seen for some time. Two governments falling. Believe me when I say this is just the beginning. Governments will fall as the world tries to get its act together. My question is, will these new governments really make a difference? Spain goes to the polls this weekend and the opposition looks like they will win a landslide victory. That makes a third new government installed in Europe in 2 weeks. In one of my previous posts, I mentioned, as governments fall, what is to stop the new governments from making radical decisions to prove their worth to their people? If that is the case, will they have the same kind of commitment to the Euro Zone? All can be said is that political risk is one that cannot be quantified and do not underestimate this.
Finally, the press is talking about Italian yields. That is close to a month too late. Yields shot all the way up to 7.47%. That all happened so quickly, the market was taken by surprise. Since that day, the markets have not been able to climb back up. The underlying weakness is obvious and we have since seen the worse week for the S&P500 since September. Yields being temporarily high is not something which should concern us because Italy does not need to refinance so much over the next few months. What the yields tell us now is that the markets are freezing up. How do I know that? Last week, there was an auction for Spanish 10 year bonds which saw the bonds sell at 6.96% yield. You may be asking why would that be something that interest you? Well the secondary market for Spanish 10 year bonds was trading at 6.60% yield. So you could buy in the primary market and sell it immediately for a nice little profit.
The reason to why there is such a big difference between the primary and secondary market is because the ECB is in the secondary market supporting prices but they do not have the mandate to buy bonds directly from primary auctions. What it tells me is that the secondary market for European sovereign bonds has frozen up. If the ECB stops buying, the yields are going to shoot through the roof. Now what we have here is a liquidity problem more than an insolvency one. However, if liquidity is withdrawn for a long period, a solvent entity can become insolvent. So continue to watch the yields closely.
One thing that makes me worried is how the French 10 year yield is at 3.66% while the German 10 year yield is at 1.85%. The spread between the two bonds are too high for comfort. Considering how both countries are rated AAA, the difference in yields may be indicating that the contagion is really here. Germany has a bond auction that was not even fully taken up last week. This shows how thin investors' confidence are on Euro Zone debt. There is also the EFSF which the world regarded as the ultimate solution for the Euro Zone debt crisis. Now the debt that has been issued by the EFSF is trading below par. That is a worry, this is a bond that is backed by all of the Euro Zone...including Germany and France. Rated AAA and trading below par. The market is obviously not regarding it as AAA. If this goes on, one has to wonder how much can the EFSF raise from investors to provide a large enough backstop for the Euro Zone. Looks like the sovereign bond markets in Europe is shedding blood while equity markets continue to meander and hope for the best. Remember "Hope is not a strategy".
While Europe is in a mess, things in the US looks brighter as most economic indicators continue to be positive. However the MF Global bankruptcy close to two weeks ago could have further reaching repercussions than we think. Of course MF Global is no Lehman, but many banks are on the hook from MF Global's demise. Be it in the form of lawsuits for selling MF Global notes or as creditors. US financials have performed really badly over the past couple of weeks. Many of them are trading close to their 52 weeks lows and one has to admit, things do not look too bright for them going forward.
One possible tricky situation for this week is the debt plan which the US debt "super committee" is supposed to come up with by 23rd of Nov. Well considering it is Sunday night and both democrats and republicans still at an impasse. This should not come as a surprise because the world knew that the formation of this "super committee" was just a delay of time tactic. The committee faces a Wednesday deadline. But members would have to agree on the outlines of a package by Monday to allow time for drafting and assessing by the Congressional Budget Office. Thus if nothing is out tomorrow, the market would not be too pleased. The US should really try to get this out of the way as soon as possible or the recent memories of the impasse they had earlier this year is going to resurface and cause more duress to the markets.
For our Singapore market, we have had a few interesting IPOs which behaved rather interestingly, rallying on pure speculation as both catalist counters are not exactly exciting in their businesses or even growing. We are seeing plenty of IPOs over the last few weeks as companies rush to list their businesses before the next downturn in the markets come along. Be very careful when dealing with these IPOs because they are really ridiculously priced. Earnings season for Singapore companies have also disappointed, illustrating the weakness in the global economy. Plenty of brokers are trying their best to release reports on when earnings will recover. My gut tells me that earnings will continue to be weak as long as the Euro Zone debt problem persists on.
Of course one of the few companies that have done pretty well during this earnings season has been LMA which I covered in the last post and Sarin did fantastic too. So both my favourites are still holding up pretty well.
Ok that is all I have to say for this week. I continue to remain bearish on the market and maintain the worst is yet to come.
Have a great week ahead!
Best,
SVI
Two weeks ago, we witnessed something which we have not seen for some time. Two governments falling. Believe me when I say this is just the beginning. Governments will fall as the world tries to get its act together. My question is, will these new governments really make a difference? Spain goes to the polls this weekend and the opposition looks like they will win a landslide victory. That makes a third new government installed in Europe in 2 weeks. In one of my previous posts, I mentioned, as governments fall, what is to stop the new governments from making radical decisions to prove their worth to their people? If that is the case, will they have the same kind of commitment to the Euro Zone? All can be said is that political risk is one that cannot be quantified and do not underestimate this.
Finally, the press is talking about Italian yields. That is close to a month too late. Yields shot all the way up to 7.47%. That all happened so quickly, the market was taken by surprise. Since that day, the markets have not been able to climb back up. The underlying weakness is obvious and we have since seen the worse week for the S&P500 since September. Yields being temporarily high is not something which should concern us because Italy does not need to refinance so much over the next few months. What the yields tell us now is that the markets are freezing up. How do I know that? Last week, there was an auction for Spanish 10 year bonds which saw the bonds sell at 6.96% yield. You may be asking why would that be something that interest you? Well the secondary market for Spanish 10 year bonds was trading at 6.60% yield. So you could buy in the primary market and sell it immediately for a nice little profit.
The reason to why there is such a big difference between the primary and secondary market is because the ECB is in the secondary market supporting prices but they do not have the mandate to buy bonds directly from primary auctions. What it tells me is that the secondary market for European sovereign bonds has frozen up. If the ECB stops buying, the yields are going to shoot through the roof. Now what we have here is a liquidity problem more than an insolvency one. However, if liquidity is withdrawn for a long period, a solvent entity can become insolvent. So continue to watch the yields closely.
One thing that makes me worried is how the French 10 year yield is at 3.66% while the German 10 year yield is at 1.85%. The spread between the two bonds are too high for comfort. Considering how both countries are rated AAA, the difference in yields may be indicating that the contagion is really here. Germany has a bond auction that was not even fully taken up last week. This shows how thin investors' confidence are on Euro Zone debt. There is also the EFSF which the world regarded as the ultimate solution for the Euro Zone debt crisis. Now the debt that has been issued by the EFSF is trading below par. That is a worry, this is a bond that is backed by all of the Euro Zone...including Germany and France. Rated AAA and trading below par. The market is obviously not regarding it as AAA. If this goes on, one has to wonder how much can the EFSF raise from investors to provide a large enough backstop for the Euro Zone. Looks like the sovereign bond markets in Europe is shedding blood while equity markets continue to meander and hope for the best. Remember "Hope is not a strategy".
While Europe is in a mess, things in the US looks brighter as most economic indicators continue to be positive. However the MF Global bankruptcy close to two weeks ago could have further reaching repercussions than we think. Of course MF Global is no Lehman, but many banks are on the hook from MF Global's demise. Be it in the form of lawsuits for selling MF Global notes or as creditors. US financials have performed really badly over the past couple of weeks. Many of them are trading close to their 52 weeks lows and one has to admit, things do not look too bright for them going forward.
One possible tricky situation for this week is the debt plan which the US debt "super committee" is supposed to come up with by 23rd of Nov. Well considering it is Sunday night and both democrats and republicans still at an impasse. This should not come as a surprise because the world knew that the formation of this "super committee" was just a delay of time tactic. The committee faces a Wednesday deadline. But members would have to agree on the outlines of a package by Monday to allow time for drafting and assessing by the Congressional Budget Office. Thus if nothing is out tomorrow, the market would not be too pleased. The US should really try to get this out of the way as soon as possible or the recent memories of the impasse they had earlier this year is going to resurface and cause more duress to the markets.
For our Singapore market, we have had a few interesting IPOs which behaved rather interestingly, rallying on pure speculation as both catalist counters are not exactly exciting in their businesses or even growing. We are seeing plenty of IPOs over the last few weeks as companies rush to list their businesses before the next downturn in the markets come along. Be very careful when dealing with these IPOs because they are really ridiculously priced. Earnings season for Singapore companies have also disappointed, illustrating the weakness in the global economy. Plenty of brokers are trying their best to release reports on when earnings will recover. My gut tells me that earnings will continue to be weak as long as the Euro Zone debt problem persists on.
Of course one of the few companies that have done pretty well during this earnings season has been LMA which I covered in the last post and Sarin did fantastic too. So both my favourites are still holding up pretty well.
Ok that is all I have to say for this week. I continue to remain bearish on the market and maintain the worst is yet to come.
Have a great week ahead!
Best,
SVI
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