As investors, we tend to be led by the market and we try to follow everything that moves and not touch anything that doesn't. Well lets look at something has been lagging behind all the other movers.
Of course, the hottest stocks in the market have been the financials and commodity related plays. Amazingly, the banking stocks in Singapore are getting close to their previous highs, especially UOB (my personal fave). Noble has hit a new all time high. So is there any more upside for these stocks? I think its hard to bet against it. But what about the next leg? One interesting sector which I have been looking at is the shipping sector. Did a global screening of stocks over the weekend, filtering and scything out the stocks that are still very close to their 52 week lows. Interestingly, majority of stocks that are close to their 52 week lows are shipping stocks.
It makes me think about the possibility of shipping being the next big mover as laggards start to play catch up. I understand that there are many reports stating that global shipping capacity is rising and spare capacity is going to hit the baltic dry index going forward. However, this is old news. From my experience, the prices of shipping companies have been hit for some time, the downside is limited. Many shippers are still trading at 5 times P/E or less. The only worry is the gearing levels. Many of the shippers ordered new ships during the global boom and are not suffering from financing woes. Take NOL for example, raising money through rights and loans. But now, its financing woes have subsided, I believe its once again time to look at the shippers. NOL is a natural choice for Singapore stock lovers. I believe it will come back with a vengeance. Look at the Baltic dry index, it has risen for 11 straight sessions, breaking out of a neckline, looks like the trend is going to be strong.
So do pay attention to shipping, there seems to be value there.
Personally, I like STX and NOL. ONAV for oil tanking shippers.
Well lets hope we can make a ship load of money here.
Best,
SVI
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Time flies and where are we now?
My god, time really flies. It seems like forever when I last wrote a post on this blog. It is not because there is nothing to say but time has not permitted me to do so.
I had a close friend ask me recently, why have I not written up on any stocks recently. I told her, good stocks are hard to come by and that we should only come out with them as an when they pop up.
Patience is a key virtue for investing. This applies to picking stocks and also waiting for a stock to perform. Remember, identifying stocks that have value and quality is the easy part. Having the patience to wait for it to deliver its value is the hard part.
Lets review my picks so far. Ziwo has done well, the performance for the stock has been decent, hitting past 40 cents since my call but the market pull back has stifled its performance. Results were pretty decent, so this is one to keep on the screen.
Trumpy Dragon...yes..my personal favourite. Reporting poor results over the weekend, a steep fall in revenue and profit. Do I still like it? Do I still have conviction...what do you think? I still believe in this counter because it has a vision. Stock has been stuck at 70 cents for a few weeks now. It may even fall below 70 cents, but remember, a pull back is a buy signal for those that has not gotten in since the beginning. Festive season is coming, alcohol consumption should pick up. Company is looking to move into more medium range products which will cater to the growing middle class in China. Rationalisation of brands and range of products may allow the company focus more on their branding and marketing. The future of this firm will be determined mainly by their acquisition going through.
Reyoung has been so well held at 30 cents, makes me have even more conviction that something is happening to it. Pay attention to this one. Results were also very decent.
Lion Asia Pac has not done that well, that is because they have been dragged into a bidding war for Polaris metals. But the value of the stock is still firmly there. So the downside is very very limited from here. I still stand by this call firmly. Remember patience?
So anything new? Do keep a look out for ONAV Omega Navigation. I like this stock for its value, a small cap with a very strong book value. Waiting for it to report earnings soon, do not expect them to deliver huge profits but it will be interesting to see if they are able to obtain financing for their oil tankers. US$3.72 looks like a bargain.
Like I said before, the rally was not over....I am right again on this. The USD weakness is fueling the market and that is something that will come back to haunt us in the future. But sticking to value will prevent you from getting burnt too badly should the market turn around suddenly. However, ride this rally as long as you can because the risk is on the upside and not on the down.
I promise I will try to write every week but a lot depends on the boss...hahaha
Take care and do feel free to post questions for me. Any stocks which you need an opinion on.
Best,
SVI
I had a close friend ask me recently, why have I not written up on any stocks recently. I told her, good stocks are hard to come by and that we should only come out with them as an when they pop up.
Patience is a key virtue for investing. This applies to picking stocks and also waiting for a stock to perform. Remember, identifying stocks that have value and quality is the easy part. Having the patience to wait for it to deliver its value is the hard part.
Lets review my picks so far. Ziwo has done well, the performance for the stock has been decent, hitting past 40 cents since my call but the market pull back has stifled its performance. Results were pretty decent, so this is one to keep on the screen.
Trumpy Dragon...yes..my personal favourite. Reporting poor results over the weekend, a steep fall in revenue and profit. Do I still like it? Do I still have conviction...what do you think? I still believe in this counter because it has a vision. Stock has been stuck at 70 cents for a few weeks now. It may even fall below 70 cents, but remember, a pull back is a buy signal for those that has not gotten in since the beginning. Festive season is coming, alcohol consumption should pick up. Company is looking to move into more medium range products which will cater to the growing middle class in China. Rationalisation of brands and range of products may allow the company focus more on their branding and marketing. The future of this firm will be determined mainly by their acquisition going through.
Reyoung has been so well held at 30 cents, makes me have even more conviction that something is happening to it. Pay attention to this one. Results were also very decent.
Lion Asia Pac has not done that well, that is because they have been dragged into a bidding war for Polaris metals. But the value of the stock is still firmly there. So the downside is very very limited from here. I still stand by this call firmly. Remember patience?
So anything new? Do keep a look out for ONAV Omega Navigation. I like this stock for its value, a small cap with a very strong book value. Waiting for it to report earnings soon, do not expect them to deliver huge profits but it will be interesting to see if they are able to obtain financing for their oil tankers. US$3.72 looks like a bargain.
Like I said before, the rally was not over....I am right again on this. The USD weakness is fueling the market and that is something that will come back to haunt us in the future. But sticking to value will prevent you from getting burnt too badly should the market turn around suddenly. However, ride this rally as long as you can because the risk is on the upside and not on the down.
I promise I will try to write every week but a lot depends on the boss...hahaha
Take care and do feel free to post questions for me. Any stocks which you need an opinion on.
Best,
SVI
Monday, November 2, 2009
Young? Or ReYoung? $0.29
Its me again. Finally after completing a very big project in my thankless job, I am finally able to find time to look at a stock which has been on my shortlist for some time. It is rather unfair that I did not manage to make the call at a lower price because I have been meaning to do so.
Many people are very worried about the current sell down and they are calling me all the time to ask if this is the end of the rally for the year. From my experience, as long as there is skepticism the market will defy it. Is the rally over? Nope. Is there going to be weakness? I think so.
I am not going to reveal how much conviction I have in this rally because I may be committed to an asylum if I told anyone. But I have my own reasons for believing in it. All I can ask for is for you to believe in me.
Ok now to the stock in mind, Reyoung Pharma. I know...many of my friends think that I like to find needles in a haystack. Why can't I just buy stocks that are hot? Novena? Biosensors? Haha. I am like that. I do not like what is popular. I like things that are obscure.
Reyoung is engaged in the manufacture and sale of pharma products and personal hygiene products for women and infants. This is one of the few pharma companies left listed in Singapore. Gone are those like Sihuan and Asiapharm. This is one company that is still trading at a cheap price. It has quietly been bought up over the past 2 weeks. Just go look for yourself. Low volume and not many sellers.
The company generates good positive cash flow and sits on good cash levels. It is leveraged but gearing levels are comfortable. For the first half of 2009, the company made 1.44 cents. That is a potential 10 times p/e which is very reasonable for a Chinese Pharma company.
What I like is not the medicinal business segment for the company, but more of the personal hygiene side of its business. I have to say I love consumer staples and to me nothing is more beautiful than stable recurring income.
The fact that the company bought back almost 20 million shares at 11-12 cents and placed them as treasury shares was even more impressive. Buying back shares at such low prices has helped to raise the company's EPS and benefited its shareholders.
Company is still trading below its book value of 31 cents and that makes it attractive to me. A company that trades below its asset value, highly profitable, strong operating cashflow, manageable leverage and lastly a defensive business.
It could be the next pharma stock to be taken private. Look at the performance of the chinese pharma stocks, Sihuan taken private, Asiapharm bought by private equity, Tianjin Zhongxin doubling...So could Reyoung be the next one?
We shall see.
Best,
SVI
Many people are very worried about the current sell down and they are calling me all the time to ask if this is the end of the rally for the year. From my experience, as long as there is skepticism the market will defy it. Is the rally over? Nope. Is there going to be weakness? I think so.
I am not going to reveal how much conviction I have in this rally because I may be committed to an asylum if I told anyone. But I have my own reasons for believing in it. All I can ask for is for you to believe in me.
Ok now to the stock in mind, Reyoung Pharma. I know...many of my friends think that I like to find needles in a haystack. Why can't I just buy stocks that are hot? Novena? Biosensors? Haha. I am like that. I do not like what is popular. I like things that are obscure.
Reyoung is engaged in the manufacture and sale of pharma products and personal hygiene products for women and infants. This is one of the few pharma companies left listed in Singapore. Gone are those like Sihuan and Asiapharm. This is one company that is still trading at a cheap price. It has quietly been bought up over the past 2 weeks. Just go look for yourself. Low volume and not many sellers.
The company generates good positive cash flow and sits on good cash levels. It is leveraged but gearing levels are comfortable. For the first half of 2009, the company made 1.44 cents. That is a potential 10 times p/e which is very reasonable for a Chinese Pharma company.
What I like is not the medicinal business segment for the company, but more of the personal hygiene side of its business. I have to say I love consumer staples and to me nothing is more beautiful than stable recurring income.
The fact that the company bought back almost 20 million shares at 11-12 cents and placed them as treasury shares was even more impressive. Buying back shares at such low prices has helped to raise the company's EPS and benefited its shareholders.
Company is still trading below its book value of 31 cents and that makes it attractive to me. A company that trades below its asset value, highly profitable, strong operating cashflow, manageable leverage and lastly a defensive business.
It could be the next pharma stock to be taken private. Look at the performance of the chinese pharma stocks, Sihuan taken private, Asiapharm bought by private equity, Tianjin Zhongxin doubling...So could Reyoung be the next one?
We shall see.
Best,
SVI
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